23 Eylül 2014 Salı

Population Trends 2050 - 2100

Prof. Rosling, 2014:

The “pincode of the world” is 1114. This means that of the planet’s 7bn people, roughly 1bn live in Europe, 1bn in the Americas, 1bn in Africa and 4bn in Asia.

♦ By 2050, Asia will be up a further 1bn to 5bn people. But then it will stop. Birth rates in Asia have already fallen so low that this is already baked in the numbers.

♦ By then, Africa’s population will have doubled to 2bn. Europe and the Americas will stay the same.

♦ By 2100, the world’s pincode is likely to be 1145. The global population will peak at 11bn, with 4bn in Africa and 5bn in Asia.

♦ By that time, the main maritime thoroughfare in the world will be the Indian Ocean not the Pacific. That is the waterway that will link 9bn of the world’s 11bn inhabitants. If you are looking far enough ahead, you should be buying prime beach property on the east coast of Africa. Prof Rosling suggests Somalia.

♦ 500m Indians live in states with 2-child families or lower.

♦ Bangladesh has brought its fertility rate down to 2.2. In Prof Rosling’s view, the fruits of this will inevitably follow. That makes Bangladesh “a very hopeful country”.

♦ The average number of children per woman in “one-child-policy” China is 1.6. The average number in do-what-you like Taiwan is 1. Professor Rosling’s conclusion: “There are forces in the bedroom that are stronger than the Communist party.”

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